Monday, February 17, 2014

Alex Salmond's arguments for Scottish Independence

A special grade of derision in society is reserved for 'Holocaust deniers'... I think the public act of Holocaust denial may even be a criminal act in some countries.  Alex Salmond and his lieutenants are a different form of reality denier, but I would argue that they're a far more dangerous variety.  Nothing that holocaust deniers say can have the slightest impact on the fact of what happened in the past; but Salmond & Co's denial of the future in an independent Scotland could lead any Scots gullible enough to believe Salmond's rhetoric into an unexpected and unintended future.

BBC News reports that Uncle Alex will make a speech today "deconstructing" the chancellor's case for currency union.  The speech will no doubt repeat his rebuttles of recent days, that the UK parties are bluffing when they say they won't entertain sharing the GBP; and the EU is bluffing when it says an independent Scotland will not retain Membership.

A famous mis-quote from the director of the Holocaust is "the biggest lies are the easiest to believe".  Hitler wasn't actually talking about his own lies to the German nation, and yet a resonance with the truth has since applied the words to his own regime in common understanding.  It's the power of this resonant truth that makes me worry Salmond's "big lie to his people" may be readily believed by people who instinctively favour an independent Scotland.

Will an Independent Scotland be able to keep the British Pound?

The British Chancellor and his counterparts from Labour and Lib Dems couldn't have been clearer: it will not happen because it is not in the interests of the remainder of the United Kingdom to give away that proportion of sovereignty.  And the only counter argument from the SNP: they're bluffing.
If you imagine they're bluffing, consider the mood of the British people for giving-up sovereignty to the European Union.

At the present time it would be electoral suicide for any of the main parties to even suggest giving-up sovereignty without a referendum... probably even for the Lib Dems!!  Only Scotland will vote on its own independence, but it's inconceivable that the rest of the UK will share sovereignty over their currency with a foreign country without a referendum.

So the reality is, either the GBP will not be shared as George Osborne declared, or else there will be a referendum for the rest of the UK, and how persuasive to Scots believe Alex Salmond will be in influencing that result?!

Far from Salmond's big lie that Scots can relax and keep the pound because the British Government is bluffing, it's a racing certainty that there will be no deal because the remainder of Britain, subsequent to a Scottish vote for independence, are highly unlikely to vote for it.

Do you really think Alex Salmond hasn't already worked that out for himself?  He's a clever man, I'm  sure he's worked it out.  That's why his pronouncement is such a brazen lie to the Scottish people... he thinks they are too stupid to engage in the real question of a post-independence currency.
The fact is, Scottish people will be able to use the GBP more or less as they do now... they just won't have any influence over it.  That doesn't seem to be the message the SNP want to put to the Scottish people.

Will an Independent Scotland remain part of the EU?

All advice from experts in EU law, reinforced by the President of the EU commission, is that as a matter of legal fact, that could not happen without a change to the Treaty of Rome, which would require unanimous agreement from all Member states.  And we know that Spain have said that they will not entertain the idea of agreeing.  Alex Salmond has not dared to suggest that Spain are bluffing... he knows that the reason why Spain will remain implacable on the question is readily understandable - they will not allow a precedent encouraging Catalonia's separatist ambitions.
So in this argument, Salmond's choice of big lie is that all the experts are wrong: they've all misunderstood... there are just minor administrative points which will be easily sorted out.  Utter hogwash!

Why not tell the truth?

Few people in the UK deny Scotland's right to determine its own future.  It's disingenuous for Salmond to tell the UK what sovereignty they will give away to Scotland, and to tell Scottish people that they will not be voting themselves out of the Euro.
Instead, he could take the arguments head-on, saying:
  • Yes, in the short-term, we'll be using the British Pound with no influence over interests and no guarantee on Scotland's debt.  But in the long term we'll look to [creating our own currency | looking to join the Euro].
  • Yes, in the short-term, Scotland as a state will lose EU Membership, but while Scottish people still have a British Passport they will personally enjoy the rights of British EU Membership.  And while Britain's own continuing Membership is highly in question as a result of their own intended referendum, Scotland would reapply and sees its long-term future very much in the EU.
If Alex Salmond fails to persuade Scottish people to vote for independence (as current polls predict), I'm sure the day after the referendum he will seamlessly proceed to demand that Scottish people have voted to have more independence than before.  And that argument should not succeed, because just as 51% for independence will result in independence, a 49% vote means that the independence argument is dead for the foreseeable future.  Scotland will, in fact, as a negotiating partner in delegated sovereignty, will be in a far weaker position than before it has been in the recent past.